Transcriptions

Wow. You may have just witnessed the most important week of 2026 when it comes to markets, and today we need to talk about it. When it comes to record inflows, huge concerns in the bonds market over AI data centers, and some movements in yields, and the South Korean market that just don't happen every day. Yeah, it's a big one.

And that's before we even talk about tanker shipping, oil, and everything else happening. Join us today as we go through stocks, commodities, and cryptos. This is going to be a huge video. We'll see you soon.

Well, welcome back guys to the special weekend edition. This one is not to be missed because we have so much to discuss in the macro world, Wall Street flows, and of course, what just happened when we saw a massive sell-off in semiconductors sparked by concerns over so many different things. We'll start today though by just talking about this week as we're rebounding at the time of this recording off certain supports that we'll discuss.

the fear and greed index got crushed all the way back down into extreme fear. And this comes off the back of, of course, sentiment results showing that everybody was really kind of becoming either bullish or bearish. Way less neutrality over the last couple of weeks. And you can see here that while bears did go up, the bulls still remain close to 40%.

And this comes to the question of where you think markets are going to be over the next 6 months. So, I do have that question for you today in the comments down below. Where do you think markets are going to end up over the next 6 months? Are you bullish, bearish, or a little neutral to the current position?

So, what really just happened? Well, there are so many things to unpack and I've actually written down a whole bunch of lists to go through today because there were just so much information coming out. On the first side, we saw one of those IPOs come out, which was Ferrris here in Australia where I live in Kangaroo Land. Now, why is that important?

Well, it was the first kind of, you know, failure to get really get on the market when it comes to data centers. On top of that, then we saw, of course, yields moving in mysterious ways that we'll discuss later on today's video. And we got AI bonds waking up, particularly around Coreweave, which sent some of the bonds moving to 15%. And that actually means that on the bonds opinion, not necessarily our own, that they're believing that the chances of a default or at least a bankruptcy here for companies like Corewave could be going past 60% over the next 5 years.

And that's a big deal because it turns out that this also happened during the GFC, particularly before some of the biggest problems actually happened. So you can see here on the chart why this all might be going on. Well, it's all got to do with the billions of dollars that are being spent on AI construction and data centers. This chart here shared from Coin Bureau basically shows really a huge amount of movement.

And that will come as no surprise if you've been watching anything to do with data centers this year. We've had 100red-year bonds from Google. We've had, of course, trillions of dollars in general money floating around. and semiconductors have had a historic crash followed by a big rally followed by now another historic crash over 9 days down in a row which is almost unprecedented.

We'll take a look at the data stats surrounding that soon. But here's where things get really strange and it all comes back to the bonds market. And remember guys on this channel we look at the price, we look at the data, we look at the flows, the PDF. Now why do we do that?

Because we want to do what they're doing, not what they're saying. That is Wall Street. And on one side of the thing, you're basically loading up your high yield junk reports and you're looking at the bonds and you're saying, "Look, there's not really that much movement in them." On the other side, you can see here this chart from Koin basically shows the triple C, the overall junk of the junk.

This is of course the bit more dodgy debt, I guess, in terms of higher risk is actually spiking. And the differential between the high yield junk and the rest of the markets, we've just never really seen this before. You'll note here back in the global financial crisis, okay, they spiked a lot more, but they were all coming along with each other. And this is what makes 2026 so different.

It's a market that's not dumb. It's a market that's paying attention where it counts and pushing credit default swaps and other things out. Now, to make matters even more wild, we're seeing a rally at the moment that is a bit of a bounce here in semiconductors. But take a look at this chart here from Blue Kurtic and he keenly spotted something that we had at today's start of the video which was a record when it comes to total inflows.

According to a report $6.1 billion of bullish inflow or at least inflows were recorded last week on which as you may be aware is a very levered ETF on semiconductors. Now why is this important? Well, it shows that huge amounts of movement of money were coming in. And that doesn't necessarily mean that a market is about to find its low or anything, but this was the largest weekly inflow on record.

So, whenever new highs or new records are reached, you always want to be paying attention. And it just so happens to be at around the same time that the semiconductors have now declined for eight consecutive days, maybe even nine when you think about it, post this result. And this puts us into a very rare time. generally periods here either just after really the dotcom crash or during periods before before the overall GFC or actually just after it and you'll note here that whenever these things tended to happen over the next kind of 5 days well markets were extremely kangarooey that is they were up down all around so you want to be looking at price action structure and the all important you know movements in trend that is are we actually seeing a change of trend on on these charts because we are coming down like a freight train right now.

8 days of decline, 9 days of decline on the semi semiconductors. That's pretty rare. The Cosby also plunged over 20% in just seven trading days. Imagine if that was the S&P or the NASDAQ.

Now, all of us might be hiding under the table if that was to occur, unless you're a really big bear in these markets. But this is a huge 7-day rate of change and we have seen it in the Cosby before, but you might notice again it's during usually very scary times before the dot kind of crisis, during the Asian crisis of the '90s, and then of course during the GFC or during the famous 2020 crash, which are all kind of, you know, historic points in time.

So, does this mean we have to panic just yet? Well, let's take a look at what the market was actually doing because it wasn't all bad depending on the sector you're in. This is why we talk about price action, data and flows. We actually noticed that the market was pulling up things like utilities, staples, healthcare.

These three, the holy trinity, I guess, of defensives. These were all kind of rallying through the last week. And it was showing that the market was getting a little bit defensive. They actually did it for days and days and days.

And you might think, oh, this came out of nowhere, but it was really the stacking of information that got so dangerous. So let's have a look here at this great chart from Duality Research over on X guys. And basically it shows here that all of the big tech was where this selloff happened. 6.4% drop in technology.

Discretionary dropped a little bit. We saw some communication services kind of fail a little bit here. But when it comes to staples when it comes to inflation and energy, which we've been witnessing here on the charts, remember WTI versus Brent last week. Brent was already looking really good.

WTI certainly played the game on Friday when it comes to pulling up and then of course utilities and even materials saw a couple of big transactions. So let's take a look at underneath the hood here with this Koin chart that I posted over on X. Links in the description down below if you want to follow us there too. And you'll notice here when we look at the last couple of sessions, yeah, it's staples, it's energy, it's healthcare, it's bio basically, of course, healthcare, and it's utilities, semiconductors, clean energy, technology, all of these things were really selling off of major concerns and I just want to kind of go through these concerns.

So on the flip side, we have of course coreweave bonds market starting to price in potential real risks there. thermos unfortunately failed its IPO at the same time and they're looking at doing it later and then of course we got the big bombshell news which was c was was everything to do with anthropic which basically showed that there's a potential slowdown in growth and this is actually what I think the market was doing and when we look at yields later you'll notice the US 10year the US 2year the US 3year all of these yields were spiking on the inflation report and then dropped straight off and I think it's just a reflection of what we've been saying all year It's earnings, earnings, earnings because guys, as you know, earnings, earnings, earnings is all about AI and of course this race for GDP expansion.

Due to that, we've got, of course, IPOs, IPOs, IPOs because of course, Anthropic is coming. We'll see how that goes. And then there's bonds, bonds, bonds. And there are several signs such as the triple C rated bonds that are starting to show signs of canary.

And this has been happening now for about what 2 3 weeks. And then all of a sudden, boom, the markets start to show a bit of volatility. Is it worse though? The consequential component becomes if we're seeing anthropics slow down, what will really discreet be thinking when it comes to overall valuations in the future?

And if you actually have a look at the last couple of months, you might think, oh well, tech's been the best sector. Tech's been pretty good. Magnificent 7 particularly good, by the way. And you'll look at this chart later when we check it out.

But when it comes to the last 3 months, it's really been energy. Energy has been kind of that little thing that's in the background. Healthcare has been in the background and even gold stocks have actually been still doing quite well. So there are several concerns but at the same time it really comes down to do we see a complete sell-off?

Is it going to be a market selloff or just an attack on tech? And then if that attack on tech continues especially in semiconductors is this the end of the supply kind of demand issues that we've seen in the markets due to data centers. Are we actually going to get slow down and are these bonds are we going to see coreweave or something else actually have a bankruptcy case?

And this has got the rumors swirling guys. You may have seen on the weekend people are making rumors on anything. There's anticipation that there's another problem in maybe even hedge funds. All sorts of things going on.

So I think this week it'll be consequential to watch the videos. Make sure to subscribe for that guys and we'll be following all of these news stories because there's quite a lot going on. Look at this chart here from Polycarp FX. It kind of makes sense in some ways.

We've actually reached the peak period just before of course the.com boom when it comes to tech versus defensives. So that is the market was really really bullish of course coming in to growth in the do rally and then right now we're seeing really really bullish but at this peak we're starting to get a couple of signs of maybe not everything is all good in terms of big transactions.

I'm still tracking a few down, but volume leaders shared this one over on X and we'll have some more in the next video. But this was a huge one here coming in on medals right at that support. Was it a buy or sell? It was certainly a quick transaction because it was one of those diamond ones, which means it was done at speed, guys.

So, that's a dark pull between two or maybe one large entity with even more multiple different large entities. Big transaction either way. First one in a while on medals. Let's now take a look at this week's earnings.

What makes this all crazy? Well, we've got tech coming in and we've got Netflix here as you can see on this chart from earnings whispers. Netflix is coming after the close this week. Then we've got Tesla.

We've got Meta. These will be everything that everyone's looking at. Particularly, of course, Meta to see what's happening in the AI sphere. What is the burn rate?

Is the growth there? What are we actually seeing? And this means that, yep, you guessed it, some big movements according to the options market. And if you're not aware of this, this one here is from earnings watcher and it basically shows the implied volatility from the bonds or from the options market.

And effectively this is a plus or minus 9 12% move on Netflix. So that means it could go up, could go down 9 12%, but they're expecting some monster moves. And when you're talking about these sizes, these huge sizes, I mean look at Meta, 6.5, 6.9%. that's going to be, you know, potentially hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions of total market cap if it starts to spook the rest of the market.

So, be careful there this week, guys. Some big stuff going on. So, before we further understand what might be happening in this AI kind of race right now and also debt, I just want to quickly jump on over to crypto because it's been transacting pretty interestingly. We saw last week Glass Node here showed that there was some bids or at least it looked like there was some large volume transactions coming through at around that 80k area that just happens to be a pretty big node on the chart and I think it's a reminder of flows price action really coming together.

At the same time as this happened we saw profit taking starting to slow down. So effectively we saw net realized losses yeah a little bit less here and a lot of these little kind of drop levels at least based on the last couple of months glass nodes gone over and said oh these have been some very pivotal points in markets. So considering this is coming off a node it's one to watch this week and we've got that coming up later.

We've also got the options levels coming up for of course Bitcoin Bitcoin h havinging cycle everyone's familiar with this at this stage but the interesting component is although it didn't fall as much as last time it's actually been sitting at around the same level and it took a little bit more time in fact we didn't really see Bitcoin go crazy until maybe a thousand days after and at the this time of recording we're just less than a hundred away from that so could it be the same again really interesting chart this one here from Haring Tracker over on So guys, just before we go a little bit further, we do have a newsletter that we send out.

It's totally free to do so. One, well, few charts usually, one market lesson from my 17 plus years of experience, and of course, a great story to go along with that. And I always find we learn well in stories. So, if you want to sign up, you can do so.

Links in the pin comment and description down below. Completely free. It' be great to have you on board. And you guys have told me you get a lot of value out of those newsletters.

So, um, yeah, I love writing them. I love checking out new things and new ideas and obviously sharing that with you guys. All right, let's get into the crux of it here when it comes to what's been going on when it comes to the biggest markets in the world. And the first one, you can't forget about Heinix.

This stock was once the remember the most transacted ETF in Hong Kong, a two times levered version of this. Just wild stuff. And that was back in May. Of course, we crashed itself.

It came back. It was a lot weaker than the rest of the semiconductors. and they've fallen back to supports. So, you have to kind of watch this because it's become the poster child of this kind of sell so far.

But it doesn't really just stop there. We've also seen corewave, as we mentioned, the bonds market starting to show real signs of concern. But when it comes to price action, you can kind of get an opinion here of how important this level is. Has it really, you know, totally closed below?

The transaction volumes of course through the roof. So, you can see here really, really big. And when we go to the weekly, you know, we we haven't had a week quite like this one, but I did note that this is the lowest weekly close. And yeah, it doesn't exactly uh fill you with confidence.

Now, a lot of people are speculating, oh, could this be the end or the beginning of the end? Well, in overnight trade, it's up as you can see here. But the key is let's talk about market cap size. So, market cap size, it's 33.86 billion.

So, is it the largest stock when it comes to anything to do with data centers and AI? Not really. And I think that's important. Although this is still a monster and in, you know, go rewind 18 years ago, you'd be saying, "Whoa, whoa, whoa.

This is too big. We can't afford it to fail." But nowadays, in 2026, with funny stuff going on, it seems like the billion is the new trillion. So, we got trillions now. And this is still relatively small, but it's the announcements that are coming out.

Everything's okay, guys. We're not seeing any problems here. here. Jensen even came out and addressed the corewave issue last week.

And this makes me just, you know, the spidey senses are tingling. Are yours tingling, guys? What are you thinking in the comments down below? Certainly some risks starting to appear there when it comes to those markets.

Now, in on top of that, of course, anthropic also seeing a potential real slowdown. And then the question becomes, what about open AI? And these are these are huge components cuz if we lose if we lose the AI trade, remember at the moment we have inflation problems and we have a boom. And what is the boom equal?

The boom equals AI. And how do we know that? Well, look at the result last week. What did we see?

Inflation. What did the market start to do to yields? The yields dropped, guys. And why is it dropping?

It could be a concern over the Kwave and a weakening economy around the world. Or it also could be a concern of AI slowdown. That is some risks there. And I think that just shows you why the boom in AI and GDP is such a huge component.

Let's have a look at the most important chart here, the Magnificent 7. You'll note it's a high, it's a low, it's a higher high, and the markets actually held on to the support. So remember, we've been talking about how the MAG 7 is maybe arguably the most important of the overall stocks at this stage because it's been holding up this entire spin show.

And when we go to Mags versus SPY, which is a combo you can do, note that that also held its support. You'll see when we look at tech in a second, that a lot of these markets were coming into supports. Look at uh semiconductors. Where did it come back to?

Previous kind of low levels. We go here to the daily. came off that big fib. And you'll note here, we're sitting at about that 540.

And if you've watched one of our previous videos, we discussed this level quite a lot. Now, is it coming down like a freight train? Yeah, that's an aggressive sell-off market. But why is it up a little bit today?

Well, people are looking at this and I think anyone that even has ever loaded a chart will be like, "Oh, that could be support." Yeah, the key is it could be support. Remember, one of the sayings on the statements that we always talk about is that we don't want to try to stop a freight train. To stop a freight train often takes market structure, so I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few wild days as we head into the big tech earnings.

Same thing goes for the Cosby. It's fallen all the way down into the previous kind of low level and it's come in again with some historic falls. And I just always think, wow, look at that market. 25% down.

That is some wild stuff. That's a bare market just like that. Less than seven days. Crazy stuff.

If that was the S&P on Q's, people would be really worried. Let's now take a look at tech. So, what did tech do? Well, technology sector actually fell into its most traded area.

Now, this is the zone where we get the node. So, effectively, there is a lot of transactions that previously allocated here. And if you don't really quite understand how institutions buy and sell, they don't really buy and sell based on just a price. They buy and sell often based on a grid.

And that's how actually price action ends up forming. We talk about this in our courses over at fxevolution.com, day trading masterclass, advanced class, these kind of ones. I highly uh suggest if you're wanting to learn more about this type of stuff, there is a kind of method to their madness. And when you think about it, why are we hitting so many crossorrelations?

Notice that people probably were trying to buy the dip last week. You might have even had a friend, maybe even you felt about it, and they're like, "Oh man, it went down like 10%. That means it that means it's a great price." Well, that's like you're thinking it's just a good price, but what about if you actually understand that these areas tend to move from equilibrium to equilibrium.

Either way, pretty important zone. You'll start to see there's quite a lot of this cross analysis. And that's before we even look at the horror show that is the Russell 2000. I mean, that thing is a lot weaker.

Here are yields. I just went to a three-year yield because no one does that. And you'll notice it went really high up, made new high, and then got crashed back down. And I think yields, you know, this is going to be a very important market moving forward because people aren't even convinced that the Fed won't hike again.

If you actually look at some of the things, we'll check it out. There's still real expectations for more Fed rate hikes because remember, did this market come down off bad inflation as in the inflation was, I guess, going down. No, it went down because they're concerned potentially about growth or AI growth. Anyway, let's have a look at the dollar.

It fell as well, kind of breaking that 4hour kind of run that it's been on and it did so hold that 10150 that we discussed. So here it is on the smaller time frames. And I actually loaded up a Euro US dollar as well. And it'll make more sense when you maybe look at that chart.

So I wouldn't say homework, but if you like looking at charts, guys, maybe load up a Euro US dollar and you might see what I mean. Let's have a look at treasuries. everyone bailed and ran into treasuries. Even though I don't know if that makes necessarily a full man of sense, but if you've loaded treasuries up on the chart, you may have seen outside of the Ballinger, really extreme sell, negative sentiment, horror show.

Everyone was really scared of it. Then of course, flick the switch, yields come down due to a different concern and all of a sudden it's rallying a little bit back to maybe a mean reversion. So could it go to 82? You know, that's I guess the question a lot of people are asking.

Q's versus SPY. Pretty clear that it is a bit of a riskoff market. Why? Well, the NASDAQ's certainly not beating the S&P, but when you see the S&P on the charts, it's maybe not as bad as the NASDAQ.

KRE, meanwhile, still kind of following along that 20 moving average. You'll notice here, guys, highs, lows, kind of selling off that 20 each time it comes down. And um this is that key level node of support that we saw last time. So, if you take a look here, I don't know why that always loads like that, but you can see that this is a very important level.

And if we actually grab a little profile here, you're going to notice that it's found a lot of transactions through that area. So, critical level here. And it's a huge component of, of course, IWM. So, it's about 20% of the Russell.

And the Russell looks miserable. Look at this. Lower highs the whole way down. Extremely technical actually.

again, daily 20, one of the best moving averages on the charts. And a lot of people are saying, well, is this the bottom for this? Is it finally going to bottom out? Like, you know, the Russell is basically in a correction.

I mean, look at look at how much it's dropped here 11.47%. Well, I loaded up a few charts and I looked at the weekly and you can certainly make a case that the weekly is at that critical 50, which has found one two kind of bounces. Also to note here on the 50, it's it's been okay before. It's actually created even a dead cat bounce rally back in January of this year.

So, real weakness here. But when I looked at the IWM and I went and took a look at it versus the SPY, it looks shocking. Like, look at this thing. It's just falling off a cliff.

And this is showing it's been a flight to safety. And the market's not dumb. The market is saying, you know, these guys might have problems with debts and refinancing. We're going to, I guess, what we would call the safety side.

Let's have a look at SpaceX off a flying car even though that was Tesla. The SpaceX stock has stabilized after falling down. But this needs to be watched now. You can see here the puts and there's a bit of put support about 135.

So we'll see how that chart ends up. But then there's energy and this is where things get even more interesting. On one side we've got concerns over data centers, but look at this tanker shipping rate and this is just so nuts. Like I mean we were sitting at $30 $25.

We're now at 898, which is just a absolute ton. And it comes pretty clear when you're looking at the energy stocks. A new all-time high close on the daily for energy. We've also got CRK that ended up pretty big.

It's up 2.5% almost at the time of this recording. So, this just continues its parabolic run. And unfortunately, this means that we might be talking what is it like $9 plus. I don't know what it is in California right now, but I know that's the most expensive for you guys in America.

And it's just some some crazy crazy times that we live in. I mean, surely this is this is going to hit us on the food and all sorts of things. And Wall Street, well, they don't really care. It's all about FOMO and fear.

But at the same time, you know, we've hit some critical levels here. Look at UK oil. Hit that 110 we've talked about many, many times. This is a big resistance.

You know, yes, we've been above it, but we've really never held above it for quite some time. So, UK oil 110, watching that extremely closely this week. Critical level. And I guess I'll give you a clap as well.

Not because we like oil going up cuz that sucks for all of us and our families and everyone else. But at the same time, the price action flow, there was a lot of great analysis I think you guys did over the last week. So, um, there's a pretty interesting chart. Actually, speaking of interesting, gold hit that that big node at around that 4060.

It's trying its best to hold on. Is this some kind of woff bottom at 123 here? Will we get through this resistance that we're looking at at around 4225? The market's been pretty weak on gold, but if yields keep dropping, that might be better for the precious metal.

Silver also hit one of those more important node areas. So maybe a bit of a critical level when it comes to silver. We don't need to worry about dollar guys. We already done that one.

Let's have a look here at the Q's. So the Q's came down again. most traded zone, heaviest kind of hit. The options market has moved to a 700 put.

So that basically means it's the most interesting level of the week, the 700 put. The market's trying to rebound here. And it does make sense when you think about technologies kind of hit that level. Q's have hit that level.

So the general NASDAQ and then of course we've also seen those other markets including MAGS and others holding on to the supports. So that with semiconductors, these are such important crossorrelation levels. You see, they're all it's all an ecosystem. Wall Street's not dumb.

They hit these key levels and then we find out whether they mean business or not. Even the US 500 kind of came into a little bit of support. We'll notice here that it was back to that price that we saw previously at 76.50. So, a lot of people are now speculating and and you got to be careful about this, which is that this could be a buy climax.

This could be a UT. So that is a WO off style distribution potentially even starting or some people I've seen say this and this is all part of a huge bearish distribution plan. I think at the moment it's kangaroo. If you're in the right sectors things aren't so bad.

If you have been in staples recently take a look at this chart. Energy obviously it's been up. Software tech if you got into the right prices maybe you're still okay. Magnificent 7 still holding, but semis are a real concern because the market's clearly saying, you know what, I've got risks.

There's something going on here. Corewave 15% bonds. I mean, that's nuts. And then, of course, with Anthropic, you know, reportedly slowing down.

Oh, that is uh I mean, of course, you can't trade the Anthropic IPO at the moment or anything, but I've seen that even the price valuations on those weird futures of futures of futures things, they were fluctuating quite a lot. So, there's clearly some stuff going on there. I bit time. What's going on in Bitcoin?

Still holding pretty pretty much solid in terms of around the price. If we actually go to the Bitcoin futures though and the spot price, you'll notice here that markets took a lower low. Still held that 80K level and they're trying to rally a little bit up here. So I think 84K very important point here for the bulls and the bears this week.

We'll be watching that one very closely. And it's interesting. It's like gold and Bitcoin are kind of okay. Bitcoin looks better in terms of the previous structure, but they're kind of both just holding on, trying to hold these key levels.

Really critical stuff. And again, a congratulations to you guys spotting that node last week and recognizing that demand. Wow. I don't know if it gets any bigger than this, guys.

I've not seen so many bonds markets firing in terms of different things. There is another read that of course we do look at on the charts. They're both high yield. Uh why do we look at this?

where we're looking at where the risks are coming back in. And I don't think you need a degree in TA to recognize that the trajectory at the moment for this chart is on the move. If that becomes too extreme, then all of a sudden you might have some widespread panic. For now though, it seems like we're at crossorrelation and what a big decision point coming into some massive tech earnings.

If you enjoyed today's show, then please remember to subscribe. Also check out our newsletter, links in the description down below. And of course, we've got one chart, one story, one market lesson. Realistically, there's a few charts in there, guys.

But it comes from, you know, our history of understanding, and I think you guys get a lot out of it. So, the feedback's been awesome. Thanks so much for bearing with me on this weekend's video. I know that there was a lot to go through.

It was those triple trifectas. I wanted to get that information sorted for you. So, if you can do me a favor, like the video, comment down below. It really does help out with the algorithm.

And I hope you appreciate it. Have a great week, guys, and stay safe out there. Some wild things could be in store into 2027.